Sometimes a good metaphor can be taken too literally. When we started saying that our stock plan administration system Equity Focus handled FAS 123R valuation and amortization in “one click,” we received a flurry of excited emails.
CFOs from venture-backed companies wanted to know how we calculate all of the inputs for valuation and expensing with just “one click.”
And of the six inputs for Black-Scholes, they were most interested in how we calculated expected volatility for nonpublic companies. As they
say, "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.” While we don’t want to admit to being overzealous in our tag lines, what
we meant was that Equity Focus reduces the complexity of tracking stock options and, “once you have your inputs for valuation,” it
will calculate the fair value of each option grant and the amortization schedule for any period "with one click."
It's All About Volatility:
There are six inputs for the Black-Scholes formula: exercise price, fair market value on the date of grant, expected volatility, expected
term, expected dividends, and risk-free interest rate. For a privately-held
company, the most difficult one to determine and the one with the greatest impact on valuation is expected volatility. The latest PCAOB Questions & Answers for auditors entitled
Auditing air Value of Share Options dated Oct. 17, 2006 emphasizes this by
stating in A7: “The expected term and expected volatility assumptions have the highest risk because they involve the greatest amounts
of judgment and have a significant effect on the estimated fair value.”
Unfortunately, when it comes to estimating expected volatility for nonpublic
entities, it’s really more of an art than a science. Hence, the great desire for a “one click” solution.
What FASB Says: FAS 123R paragraph A22 states: “A nonpublic entity will need to exercise
judgment in selecting a method to estimate expected volatility and might do
so by basing its expected volatility on the average volatilities of otherwise similar public entities. For purposes of
identifying otherwise similar entities, an entity would likely consider
characteristics such as industry, stage of life cycle, size, and financial leverage.” And certainly the suggestion by FASB that the company “will need to exercise judgment” may be the understatement of the
year. If there are no similar peer companies, then FAS 123R paragraph A45requires a company to estimate its expected volatility “by
substituting the historical volatility of an appropriate industry sector index,”
as described in paragraph A46.
FASB should have said: “Don’t try this at home” or “Volatility should only be handled on a closed course by a professional driver.” The lesson
is don't take your inputs out for a test drive a few weeks before your auditors are going to arrive.
Get Help: At Two Step, we recommend that privately-held companies that do not
have historical data with which to calculate expected volatility or have not
developed internal expertise with FAS 123R seek outside assistance in
determining appropriate values for volatility and other inputs for the Black-Scholes valuation model. Just running
the Black-Scholes formula mechanically without a reasonable understanding of the subtleties of the inputs is unlikely to result in a
satisfactory valuation that will withstand the scrutiny of your auditors this
year and eventually the even tougher review of the Big 4 auditors for your next venture round or the public company that may acquire your
company down the road.
Resources: There are many excellent resources out there that can assist a company
with determining reasonable inputs for stock option valuation. The spectrum of consulting firms provide different levels of
service designed for different types of companies and at varying prices. Two well known firms that are highly-focused on FAS 123R consulting and have worked with many publicly-held companies are: Equity Methods and FAS123 Solutions, LLC. Two other companies that provide excellent FAS 123R consulting services to both smaller public and nonpublic companies are iComp, LLC and CFO Professional Services.
If you are accounting for your stock options under FAS 123R, start by taking the time to insure that your inputs are well justified and
that the supporting documentation will satisfy your auditor’s scrutiny. They are required to evaluate the assumptions that go into your stock option valuations.
And, since you’ll be applying the same method consistently year after year, it just makes sense to get it right at the beginning.